Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates maintain full diplomatic relations, active embassies, and extensive economic and security cooperation as GCC members despite intensified public rivalry since late 2025. Key drivers of trader consensus against severance include repeated official signals of unity—such as coordinated July 2026 social media statements affirming historical ties—shared positions on Iran and regional stability, substantial bilateral trade and investment flows, and ongoing coordination in energy and defense forums. Proxy competition in Yemen, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa has produced media friction and limited military incidents but has not disrupted formal channels or triggered recalls. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds remain narrow: a major escalation in Yemen proxies crossing explicit red lines, abrupt leadership changes altering personal diplomacy between the rulers, or an external shock forcing one side into an irreconcilable alignment. Current trajectories and institutional incentives continue to favor managed competition over rupture.