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Géopolitique·Iran

Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ?

icon for Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ?
Géopolitique·Iran

Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ?

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket

$632,147 Vol.

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket

$632,147 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. administration has repeatedly distanced itself from recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, including through a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that affirmed respect for Iranian sovereignty without any regime-change provisions. Senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have stated that installing Pahlavi was never a U.S. goal, while President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled prince's domestic support base inside Iran. Pahlavi's advocacy for a transitional role has continued amid ongoing regional tensions but shows no path to formal U.S. diplomatic acknowledgment by year-end. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural barriers, though late developments such as a sudden Iranian leadership vacuum or abrupt policy reversal could still alter the trajectory before December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$632,147
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. administration has repeatedly distanced itself from recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, including through a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that affirmed respect for Iranian sovereignty without any regime-change provisions. Senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have stated that installing Pahlavi was never a U.S. goal, while President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled prince's domestic support base inside Iran. Pahlavi's advocacy for a transitional role has continued amid ongoing regional tensions but shows no path to formal U.S. diplomatic acknowledgment by year-end. Trader consensus at 95% reflects these structural barriers, though late developments such as a sudden Iranian leadership vacuum or abrupt policy reversal could still alter the trajectory before December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$632,147
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme dirigeant de l’Iran en 2026 ? » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 5¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 5% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ? » a généré $632.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 5, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ? » est « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme dirigeant de l’Iran en 2026 ? » à seulement 5%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis reconnaissent-ils Reza Pahlavi comme leader de l'Iran en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.