**The US-Saudi 123 agreement signed July 22, 2026, faces multiple procedural and political hurdles that make entry into force before year-end improbable.** Following the announcement, President Trump publicly conditioned implementation on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel, a step Riyadh has consistently tied to progress on Palestinian statehood. The agreement also requires submission to Congress for a mandatory 90-session-day review period under the Atomic Energy Act, during which lawmakers can raise nonproliferation concerns over enrichment provisions and safeguards. No congressional transmission or review has advanced since the July signing, and Saudi officials have not signaled willingness to meet the new normalization condition. These factors—combined with the limited legislative calendar remaining in 2026—have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 77.5% probability assigned to “No.”