The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure sanctions policy, including September 2026 Treasury rules restricting U.S. bank access for Cuban private entrepreneurs, limiting travel, and expanding designations on military-linked entities, continues to define U.S.-Cuba economic relations. Recent executive orders have enabled secondary tariffs on third-country oil shipments and further blocked transactions, while Cuba’s June market reforms face implementation barriers tied to the embargo. Bilateral trade volumes have risen sharply through private-sector shipments of fuel and goods, yet no public negotiations or mutual agreements on tariffs, sanctions relief, or embargo changes have occurred. Trader consensus prices any formal economic deal by late 2026 at low levels, reflecting the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs and the administration’s stated preference for political concessions alongside economic steps.