US economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, and immigration restrictions have intensified pressure on Cuba throughout 2026 without crossing into direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure strategy centered on choking off energy supplies and targeting military-linked enterprises, while contingency planning and official warnings about arms acquisitions remain at the level of deterrence rather than imminent action. Cuba has responded with limited market reforms, prisoner releases, and statements signaling openness to talks, even as its foreign minister ruled out negotiations in early September. US forces remain engaged elsewhere, and bilateral military contacts at Guantanamo have continued on operational matters. These dynamics underpin trader consensus that a clash is unlikely to materialize before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
16% chance
$250,267 Vol.
$250,267 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$250,267 Vol.
$250,267 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, and immigration restrictions have intensified pressure on Cuba throughout 2026 without crossing into direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure strategy centered on choking off energy supplies and targeting military-linked enterprises, while contingency planning and official warnings about arms acquisitions remain at the level of deterrence rather than imminent action. Cuba has responded with limited market reforms, prisoner releases, and statements signaling openness to talks, even as its foreign minister ruled out negotiations in early September. US forces remain engaged elsewhere, and bilateral military contacts at Guantanamo have continued on operational matters. These dynamics underpin trader consensus that a clash is unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$250,267Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, and immigration restrictions have intensified pressure on Cuba throughout 2026 without crossing into direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure strategy centered on choking off energy supplies and targeting military-linked enterprises, while contingency planning and official warnings about arms acquisitions remain at the level of deterrence rather than imminent action. Cuba has responded with limited market reforms, prisoner releases, and statements signaling openness to talks, even as its foreign minister ruled out negotiations in early September. US forces remain engaged elsewhere, and bilateral military contacts at Guantanamo have continued on operational matters. These dynamics underpin trader consensus that a clash is unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,267Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...US economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on fuel suppliers, and immigration restrictions have intensified pressure on Cuba throughout 2026 without crossing into direct military confrontation. The Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure strategy centered on choking off energy supplies and targeting military-linked enterprises, while contingency planning and official warnings about arms acquisitions remain at the level of deterrence rather than imminent action. Cuba has responded with limited market reforms, prisoner releases, and statements signaling openness to talks, even as its foreign minister ruled out negotiations in early September. US forces remain engaged elsewhere, and bilateral military contacts at Guantanamo have continued on operational matters. These dynamics underpin trader consensus that a clash is unlikely to materialize before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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