The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be extended in its current form. This position, taken by the current administration amid bilateral negotiations with Mexico and separate talks involving Canada, triggered the annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada supported a clean extension, but U.S. priorities on issues such as rules of origin, labor enforcement, tariffs, and supply-chain security have kept the parties apart. The agreement remains in force pending further talks, yet the absence of trilateral consensus on extension by mid-August has reinforced trader expectations against renewal this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
14% chance
$10,265 Vol.
$10,265 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
14% chance
$10,265 Vol.
$10,265 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be extended in its current form. This position, taken by the current administration amid bilateral negotiations with Mexico and separate talks involving Canada, triggered the annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada supported a clean extension, but U.S. priorities on issues such as rules of origin, labor enforcement, tariffs, and supply-chain security have kept the parties apart. The agreement remains in force pending further talks, yet the absence of trilateral consensus on extension by mid-August has reinforced trader expectations against renewal this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,265Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be extended in its current form. This position, taken by the current administration amid bilateral negotiations with Mexico and separate talks involving Canada, triggered the annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada supported a clean extension, but U.S. priorities on issues such as rules of origin, labor enforcement, tariffs, and supply-chain security have kept the parties apart. The agreement remains in force pending further talks, yet the absence of trilateral consensus on extension by mid-August has reinforced trader expectations against renewal this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,265Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be extended in its current form. This position, taken by the current administration amid bilateral negotiations with Mexico and separate talks involving Canada, triggered the annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada supported a clean extension, but U.S. priorities on issues such as rules of origin, labor enforcement, tariffs, and supply-chain security have kept the parties apart. The agreement remains in force pending further talks, yet the absence of trilateral consensus on extension by mid-August has reinforced trader expectations against renewal this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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