The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the annual review process running through 2036 rather than automatic extension, despite support for renewal from Mexico and Canada. Ongoing bilateral talks, including U.S.-Mexico negotiating rounds, have produced no head-of-government confirmation or consensus on terms by mid-August. Trader consensus on a "No" outcome by year-end reflects the procedural requirement for unanimous written confirmation to trigger extension, the U.S. emphasis on seeking concessions before any renewal, and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
15% chance
$10,265 Vol.
$10,265 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
15% chance
$10,265 Vol.
$10,265 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the annual review process running through 2036 rather than automatic extension, despite support for renewal from Mexico and Canada. Ongoing bilateral talks, including U.S.-Mexico negotiating rounds, have produced no head-of-government confirmation or consensus on terms by mid-August. Trader consensus on a "No" outcome by year-end reflects the procedural requirement for unanimous written confirmation to trigger extension, the U.S. emphasis on seeking concessions before any renewal, and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,265Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the annual review process running through 2036 rather than automatic extension, despite support for renewal from Mexico and Canada. Ongoing bilateral talks, including U.S.-Mexico negotiating rounds, have produced no head-of-government confirmation or consensus on terms by mid-August. Trader consensus on a "No" outcome by year-end reflects the procedural requirement for unanimous written confirmation to trigger extension, the U.S. emphasis on seeking concessions before any renewal, and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,265Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This triggered the annual review process running through 2036 rather than automatic extension, despite support for renewal from Mexico and Canada. Ongoing bilateral talks, including U.S.-Mexico negotiating rounds, have produced no head-of-government confirmation or consensus on terms by mid-August. Trader consensus on a "No" outcome by year-end reflects the procedural requirement for unanimous written confirmation to trigger extension, the U.S. emphasis on seeking concessions before any renewal, and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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