Israel's Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, setting national elections for October 27 amid coalition fractures over Haredi conscription and other issues. Post-election coalition formation requires securing 61 of 120 seats for a vote of confidence, yet recent polls show the Likud-led bloc and opposition parties each falling short of a clear majority, with Arab parties and smaller lists holding potential swing influence. This fragmented landscape, combined with historical delays in government formation and ongoing security priorities, underpins trader consensus around a slim "No" probability by year-end. A decisive bloc outcome or rapid negotiations could accelerate confirmation, while prolonged talks or legal challenges over results might extend the timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour47% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
47% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, setting national elections for October 27 amid coalition fractures over Haredi conscription and other issues. Post-election coalition formation requires securing 61 of 120 seats for a vote of confidence, yet recent polls show the Likud-led bloc and opposition parties each falling short of a clear majority, with Arab parties and smaller lists holding potential swing influence. This fragmented landscape, combined with historical delays in government formation and ongoing security priorities, underpins trader consensus around a slim "No" probability by year-end. A decisive bloc outcome or rapid negotiations could accelerate confirmation, while prolonged talks or legal challenges over results might extend the timeline.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,301Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, setting national elections for October 27 amid coalition fractures over Haredi conscription and other issues. Post-election coalition formation requires securing 61 of 120 seats for a vote of confidence, yet recent polls show the Likud-led bloc and opposition parties each falling short of a clear majority, with Arab parties and smaller lists holding potential swing influence. This fragmented landscape, combined with historical delays in government formation and ongoing security priorities, underpins trader consensus around a slim "No" probability by year-end. A decisive bloc outcome or rapid negotiations could accelerate confirmation, while prolonged talks or legal challenges over results might extend the timeline.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,301Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, setting national elections for October 27 amid coalition fractures over Haredi conscription and other issues. Post-election coalition formation requires securing 61 of 120 seats for a vote of confidence, yet recent polls show the Likud-led bloc and opposition parties each falling short of a clear majority, with Arab parties and smaller lists holding potential swing influence. This fragmented landscape, combined with historical delays in government formation and ongoing security priorities, underpins trader consensus around a slim "No" probability by year-end. A decisive bloc outcome or rapid negotiations could accelerate confirmation, while prolonged talks or legal challenges over results might extend the timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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