Recent inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE at 3.3%, combined with ongoing supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50-3.75% under pressure. The July FOMC decision to hold rates drew three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while Chair Warsh's hawkish rhetoric and solid labor market data reinforced trader views that a hike could address persistent price pressures above the 2% goal. With the September 15-16 meeting approaching in roughly two weeks, the 59.5% market-implied probability of a hike at the next change reflects aggregated sentiment from capital at risk, tempered by the possibility of softer incoming data shifting the balance.