Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre 40%
7–13 septembre 23%
14–20 septembre 23%
31 août–6 septembre 22%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Avant le 31 août
21%
31 août–6 septembre
22%
7–13 septembre
23%
14–20 septembre
23%
21 septembre–27 septembre
22%
28 septembre–4 octobre
21%
5 octobre – 11 octobre
21%
12–18 octobre
21%
19 octobre–25 octobre
21%
26 octobre–1er novembre
21%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre
22%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre 40%
7–13 septembre 23%
14–20 septembre 23%
31 août–6 septembre 22%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Avant le 31 août
$0 Vol.
21%
31 août–6 septembre
$0 Vol.
22%
7–13 septembre
$0 Vol.
23%
14–20 septembre
$0 Vol.
23%
21 septembre–27 septembre
$0 Vol.
22%
28 septembre–4 octobre
$0 Vol.
21%
5 octobre – 11 octobre
$0 Vol.
21%
12–18 octobre
$0 Vol.
21%
19 octobre–25 octobre
$0 Vol.
21%
26 octobre–1er novembre
$0 Vol.
21%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 1er novembre
$47 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$39Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$39Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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