U.S. authorities have intensified pressure on Mexican cartels through new indictments, record reward offers exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures such as Pelón and Jardinero, and sanctions targeting leadership networks. Mexican operations, including the February 2026 killing of El Mencho with U.S. intelligence support, triggered leadership transitions that heighten exposure for successors. Bilateral cooperation, including extraditions and narcoterrorism charges, has produced recent arrests and continues into 2026, while Sinaloa-related cases involving the Chapitos brothers and plaza bosses remain active with substantial bounties. These enforcement trends, combined with scheduled policy deadlines and ongoing task force actions, shape trader assessments of which specific leaders face apprehension this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuels chefs de cartel seront arrêtés en 2026 ?
Quels chefs de cartel seront arrêtés en 2026 ?
$143,093 Vol.
28 févr. 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
46%
$143,093 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Vol.
60%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Vol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,874 Vol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,662 Vol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Vol.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. authorities have intensified pressure on Mexican cartels through new indictments, record reward offers exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures such as Pelón and Jardinero, and sanctions targeting leadership networks. Mexican operations, including the February 2026 killing of El Mencho with U.S. intelligence support, triggered leadership transitions that heighten exposure for successors. Bilateral cooperation, including extraditions and narcoterrorism charges, has produced recent arrests and continues into 2026, while Sinaloa-related cases involving the Chapitos brothers and plaza bosses remain active with substantial bounties. These enforcement trends, combined with scheduled policy deadlines and ongoing task force actions, shape trader assessments of which specific leaders face apprehension this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$143,093Date de fin
28 févr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. authorities have intensified pressure on Mexican cartels through new indictments, record reward offers exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures such as Pelón and Jardinero, and sanctions targeting leadership networks. Mexican operations, including the February 2026 killing of El Mencho with U.S. intelligence support, triggered leadership transitions that heighten exposure for successors. Bilateral cooperation, including extraditions and narcoterrorism charges, has produced recent arrests and continues into 2026, while Sinaloa-related cases involving the Chapitos brothers and plaza bosses remain active with substantial bounties. These enforcement trends, combined with scheduled policy deadlines and ongoing task force actions, shape trader assessments of which specific leaders face apprehension this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,093Date de fin
28 févr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. authorities have intensified pressure on Mexican cartels through new indictments, record reward offers exceeding $100 million for CJNG figures such as Pelón and Jardinero, and sanctions targeting leadership networks. Mexican operations, including the February 2026 killing of El Mencho with U.S. intelligence support, triggered leadership transitions that heighten exposure for successors. Bilateral cooperation, including extraditions and narcoterrorism charges, has produced recent arrests and continues into 2026, while Sinaloa-related cases involving the Chapitos brothers and plaza bosses remain active with substantial bounties. These enforcement trends, combined with scheduled policy deadlines and ongoing task force actions, shape trader assessments of which specific leaders face apprehension this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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