Romania's political landscape remains fluid following the May 5 no-confidence vote that collapsed the four-party grand coalition under Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with parliamentary leaders to rebuild a pro-European government without early elections, ruling out far-right participation. This has produced closely matched trader probabilities across multiple centrist combinations, including PNL plus UDMR and broader alliances involving PSD. The PSD's decision to partner with AUR on the motion and subsequent withdrawal from the prior cabinet created the current uncertainty, while historical patterns of Romanian coalition bargaining and the absence of a clear parliamentary majority sustain tight pricing. Negotiations over the prime minister and key portfolios could quickly shift these implied probabilities once a candidate advances.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPNL + UDMR 39.1%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.7%
AUR 4.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mai 2026
PSD
30%
PNL
36%
USR
1%
UDMR
3%
AUR
4%
PSD + PNL
23%
PSD + USR
3%
PSD + UDMR
39%
PSD + AUR
29%
PNL + USR
4%
PNL + UDMR
39%
PNL + AUR
7%
USR + UDMR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
5%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
3%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
44%
PNL + UDMR 39.1%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.7%
AUR 4.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mai 2026
PSD
$30 Vol.
30%
PNL
$101 Vol.
36%
USR
$785 Vol.
1%
UDMR
$580 Vol.
3%
AUR
$30 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL
$118 Vol.
23%
PSD + USR
$456 Vol.
3%
PSD + UDMR
$36 Vol.
39%
PSD + AUR
$122 Vol.
29%
PNL + USR
$51 Vol.
4%
PNL + UDMR
$67 Vol.
39%
PNL + AUR
$160 Vol.
7%
USR + UDMR
$250 Vol.
1%
USR + AUR
$640 Vol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$65 Vol.
5%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 Vol.
3%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 Vol.
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$230 Vol.
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 Vol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 Vol.
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Vol.
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 Vol.
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 Vol.
1%
Other
$50 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's political landscape remains fluid following the May 5 no-confidence vote that collapsed the four-party grand coalition under Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with parliamentary leaders to rebuild a pro-European government without early elections, ruling out far-right participation. This has produced closely matched trader probabilities across multiple centrist combinations, including PNL plus UDMR and broader alliances involving PSD. The PSD's decision to partner with AUR on the motion and subsequent withdrawal from the prior cabinet created the current uncertainty, while historical patterns of Romanian coalition bargaining and the absence of a clear parliamentary majority sustain tight pricing. Negotiations over the prime minister and key portfolios could quickly shift these implied probabilities once a candidate advances.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$7,617Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's political landscape remains fluid following the May 5 no-confidence vote that collapsed the four-party grand coalition under Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with parliamentary leaders to rebuild a pro-European government without early elections, ruling out far-right participation. This has produced closely matched trader probabilities across multiple centrist combinations, including PNL plus UDMR and broader alliances involving PSD. The PSD's decision to partner with AUR on the motion and subsequent withdrawal from the prior cabinet created the current uncertainty, while historical patterns of Romanian coalition bargaining and the absence of a clear parliamentary majority sustain tight pricing. Negotiations over the prime minister and key portfolios could quickly shift these implied probabilities once a candidate advances.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Volume
$7,617Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania's political landscape remains fluid following the May 5 no-confidence vote that collapsed the four-party grand coalition under Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with parliamentary leaders to rebuild a pro-European government without early elections, ruling out far-right participation. This has produced closely matched trader probabilities across multiple centrist combinations, including PNL plus UDMR and broader alliances involving PSD. The PSD's decision to partner with AUR on the motion and subsequent withdrawal from the prior cabinet created the current uncertainty, while historical patterns of Romanian coalition bargaining and the absence of a clear parliamentary majority sustain tight pricing. Negotiations over the prime minister and key portfolios could quickly shift these implied probabilities once a candidate advances.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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