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icon for Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

icon for Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ?

Amul Thapar 22%

James Ho 17%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Aileen Cannon 12%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Amul Thapar 22%

James Ho 17%

Andrew Oldham 13%

Aileen Cannon 12%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Amul Thapar

$155 Vol.

22%

James Ho

$457 Vol.

17%

Andrew Oldham

$637 Vol.

13%

Aileen Cannon

$243 Vol.

16%

Steven Menashi

$103 Vol.

12%

Patrick Bumatay

$881 Vol.

11%

Neomi Rao

$108 Vol.

9%

Mike Lee

$125 Vol.

8%

Gregory Katsas

$127 Vol.

21%

John Sauer

$121 Vol.

5%

Ted Cruz

$160 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trump administration signals of readiness for a Supreme Court vacancy, particularly if Justices Alito or Thomas retire, sustain broad trader interest across a deep bench of conservative circuit judges without establishing a clear frontrunner. Amul Thapar, Gregory Katsas, James Ho, and Andrew Oldham lead at low double-digit probabilities because each combines Trump-era appointments, Federalist Society ties, and records aligned with textualist or originalist approaches, yet none has received explicit White House endorsement. High uncertainty over vacancy timing, Senate confirmation margins, and the president's personal preferences keeps implied probabilities clustered, with "Other" reflecting the possibility of lesser-known or non-judge picks. A confirmed retirement, targeted public statements from Trump, or high-profile opinions from contenders could quickly consolidate support around one or two names.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,118
Date de fin
19 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trump administration signals of readiness for a Supreme Court vacancy, particularly if Justices Alito or Thomas retire, sustain broad trader interest across a deep bench of conservative circuit judges without establishing a clear frontrunner. Amul Thapar, Gregory Katsas, James Ho, and Andrew Oldham lead at low double-digit probabilities because each combines Trump-era appointments, Federalist Society ties, and records aligned with textualist or originalist approaches, yet none has received explicit White House endorsement. High uncertainty over vacancy timing, Senate confirmation margins, and the president's personal preferences keeps implied probabilities clustered, with "Other" reflecting the possibility of lesser-known or non-judge picks. A confirmed retirement, targeted public statements from Trump, or high-profile opinions from contenders could quickly consolidate support around one or two names.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,118
Date de fin
19 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

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40%
Oui
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4%
Oui
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47%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Amul Thapar » à 22%, suivi de « Gregory Katsas » à 21%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 22¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 24, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » est « Amul Thapar » à 22%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Gregory Katsas » à 21%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui l'administrateur Trump nommera-t-il ensuite en tant que SCOTUS Justice ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.