Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Le GRK déclare son indépendance de l'Irak d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Oui
$52,589 Vol.
$52,589 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$52,589 Vol.
$52,589 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$52,589Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,589Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90.5% probability that the Kurdistan Regional Government will not declare independence from Iraq by December 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or diplomatic initiatives toward secession. Recent resumption of oil exports through Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline in March 2026, coupled with ongoing negotiations over federal budget allocations and civil servant salaries, underscores continued economic integration with Baghdad rather than rupture. Internal political deadlock preventing full government formation in Erbil, combined with regional pressures from the Iran conflict and Baghdad’s enforcement of customs controls, further reinforces this stance. The 2017 referendum’s aftermath, which led to territorial losses and international isolation, continues to shape leadership caution, leaving no verifiable catalysts for a unilateral declaration in the current timeline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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