Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, where the R+8 partisan voter index and Grothman’s 61% victory in 2024 underpin the Republican Party’s 89.5% implied probability. The August 11 primaries produced no surprises, with Grothman unopposed and Smith edging Amanda Bell by under one point, leaving the general election matchup intact ahead of the November 3 vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic path to victory absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Traders’ pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWI-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$31,665 Vol.
$31,665 Vol.
Parti républicain
90%
Parti démocrate
11%
$31,665 Vol.
$31,665 Vol.
Parti républicain
90%
Parti démocrate
11%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democrat Brad Smith in Wisconsin’s 6th congressional district, where the R+8 partisan voter index and Grothman’s 61% victory in 2024 underpin the Republican Party’s 89.5% implied probability. The August 11 primaries produced no surprises, with Grothman unopposed and Smith edging Amanda Bell by under one point, leaving the general election matchup intact ahead of the November 3 vote. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic path to victory absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Traders’ pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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