**Recent near-misses by Hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (early September 2026) have reinforced the low probability of a direct hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027.** Both storms produced significant impacts—Lala brought hurricane-force winds and extreme rainfall (over 40 inches in spots on the Big Island) without an official landfall, while Lowell (a former Category 5) passed west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2, triggering a historic tornado watch, flooding, and power outages—but their centers stayed offshore. These events drove market-implied odds for a landfall sharply lower, consistent with the current 16.5% chance of “Yes.” Hawaii experiences direct landfalls (eye intersecting land) extremely rarely due to its location, cooler surrounding waters that limit intensification near the islands, and typical steering patterns that direct most central Pacific systems westward or away. Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992. The 2026 central Pacific season has been unusually active (above-normal per NOAA, aided by El Niño), with multiple named systems affecting the islands, yet none have produced a landfall. Late-season activity (now through November) historically declines, and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no immediate threats. While El Niño can increase overall storm counts and occasional close approaches, the specific alignment needed for landfall remains uncommon. Traders are pricing in this climatological barrier plus the season’s remaining window and recent track data, yielding the strong “No” consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan touchera-t-il Hawaï avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan touchera-t-il Hawaï avant 2027 ?
Oui
17% chance
$41,301 Vol.
$41,301 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
17% chance
$41,301 Vol.
$41,301 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Recent near-misses by Hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (early September 2026) have reinforced the low probability of a direct hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027.** Both storms produced significant impacts—Lala brought hurricane-force winds and extreme rainfall (over 40 inches in spots on the Big Island) without an official landfall, while Lowell (a former Category 5) passed west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2, triggering a historic tornado watch, flooding, and power outages—but their centers stayed offshore. These events drove market-implied odds for a landfall sharply lower, consistent with the current 16.5% chance of “Yes.”
Hawaii experiences direct landfalls (eye intersecting land) extremely rarely due to its location, cooler surrounding waters that limit intensification near the islands, and typical steering patterns that direct most central Pacific systems westward or away. Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992. The 2026 central Pacific season has been unusually active (above-normal per NOAA, aided by El Niño), with multiple named systems affecting the islands, yet none have produced a landfall.
Late-season activity (now through November) historically declines, and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no immediate threats. While El Niño can increase overall storm counts and occasional close approaches, the specific alignment needed for landfall remains uncommon. Traders are pricing in this climatological barrier plus the season’s remaining window and recent track data, yielding the strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$41,301Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Recent near-misses by Hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (early September 2026) have reinforced the low probability of a direct hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027.** Both storms produced significant impacts—Lala brought hurricane-force winds and extreme rainfall (over 40 inches in spots on the Big Island) without an official landfall, while Lowell (a former Category 5) passed west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2, triggering a historic tornado watch, flooding, and power outages—but their centers stayed offshore. These events drove market-implied odds for a landfall sharply lower, consistent with the current 16.5% chance of “Yes.”
Hawaii experiences direct landfalls (eye intersecting land) extremely rarely due to its location, cooler surrounding waters that limit intensification near the islands, and typical steering patterns that direct most central Pacific systems westward or away. Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992. The 2026 central Pacific season has been unusually active (above-normal per NOAA, aided by El Niño), with multiple named systems affecting the islands, yet none have produced a landfall.
Late-season activity (now through November) historically declines, and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no immediate threats. While El Niño can increase overall storm counts and occasional close approaches, the specific alignment needed for landfall remains uncommon. Traders are pricing in this climatological barrier plus the season’s remaining window and recent track data, yielding the strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
Volume
$41,301Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Recent near-misses by Hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (early September 2026) have reinforced the low probability of a direct hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027.** Both storms produced significant impacts—Lala brought hurricane-force winds and extreme rainfall (over 40 inches in spots on the Big Island) without an official landfall, while Lowell (a former Category 5) passed west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2, triggering a historic tornado watch, flooding, and power outages—but their centers stayed offshore. These events drove market-implied odds for a landfall sharply lower, consistent with the current 16.5% chance of “Yes.” Hawaii experiences direct landfalls (eye intersecting land) extremely rarely due to its location, cooler surrounding waters that limit intensification near the islands, and typical steering patterns that direct most central Pacific systems westward or away. Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the modern record: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992. The 2026 central Pacific season has been unusually active (above-normal per NOAA, aided by El Niño), with multiple named systems affecting the islands, yet none have produced a landfall. Late-season activity (now through November) historically declines, and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no immediate threats. While El Niño can increase overall storm counts and occasional close approaches, the specific alignment needed for landfall remains uncommon. Traders are pricing in this climatological barrier plus the season’s remaining window and recent track data, yielding the strong “No” consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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