The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza remains in the written pleadings phase, with Israel’s counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and oral proceedings extend well beyond 2027, consistent with the multi-year timeline typical for merits rulings at the court. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural realities underpin trader expectations that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its officials by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour13% chance
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
13% chance
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza remains in the written pleadings phase, with Israel’s counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and oral proceedings extend well beyond 2027, consistent with the multi-year timeline typical for merits rulings at the court. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural realities underpin trader expectations that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its officials by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,211Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza remains in the written pleadings phase, with Israel’s counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and oral proceedings extend well beyond 2027, consistent with the multi-year timeline typical for merits rulings at the court. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural realities underpin trader expectations that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its officials by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,211Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza remains in the written pleadings phase, with Israel’s counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and oral proceedings extend well beyond 2027, consistent with the multi-year timeline typical for merits rulings at the court. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural realities underpin trader expectations that no international court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its officials by the market’s December 2027 cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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