Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the fourth-warmest January–March period on record and March tying for the second-warmest March since 1850 at 1.31 °C above the 20th-century average. This sustained warmth, driven by long-term anthropogenic trends and residual effects from prior strong El Niño conditions, underpins the 87 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. Dynamical models now indicate a transition toward El Niño in the second half of the year, which historically amplifies peak monthly anomalies. Traders weigh these factors against inherent forecast uncertainty in ENSO evolution and natural variability, noting that resolution hinges on official monthly rankings from agencies monitoring global mean surface temperature.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn mois de 2026 sera-t-il le plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Un mois de 2026 sera-t-il le plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Oui
$136,756 Vol.
$136,756 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
Oui
$136,756 Vol.
$136,756 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the fourth-warmest January–March period on record and March tying for the second-warmest March since 1850 at 1.31 °C above the 20th-century average. This sustained warmth, driven by long-term anthropogenic trends and residual effects from prior strong El Niño conditions, underpins the 87 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. Dynamical models now indicate a transition toward El Niño in the second half of the year, which historically amplifies peak monthly anomalies. Traders weigh these factors against inherent forecast uncertainty in ENSO evolution and natural variability, noting that resolution hinges on official monthly rankings from agencies monitoring global mean surface temperature.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$136,756Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the fourth-warmest January–March period on record and March tying for the second-warmest March since 1850 at 1.31 °C above the 20th-century average. This sustained warmth, driven by long-term anthropogenic trends and residual effects from prior strong El Niño conditions, underpins the 87 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. Dynamical models now indicate a transition toward El Niño in the second half of the year, which historically amplifies peak monthly anomalies. Traders weigh these factors against inherent forecast uncertainty in ENSO evolution and natural variability, noting that resolution hinges on official monthly rankings from agencies monitoring global mean surface temperature.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,756Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show 2026 beginning with globally elevated temperatures, including the fourth-warmest January–March period on record and March tying for the second-warmest March since 1850 at 1.31 °C above the 20th-century average. This sustained warmth, driven by long-term anthropogenic trends and residual effects from prior strong El Niño conditions, underpins the 87 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. Dynamical models now indicate a transition toward El Niño in the second half of the year, which historically amplifies peak monthly anomalies. Traders weigh these factors against inherent forecast uncertainty in ENSO evolution and natural variability, noting that resolution hinges on official monthly rankings from agencies monitoring global mean surface temperature.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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