**Current forecasts and polling for the November 3, 2026 midterms show no federal or statewide race projected to finish within a 0.01% margin.** Models from sources such as Silver Bulletin, Cook Political Report, and 270toWin rate numerous Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests as tossups or leans, yet expected margins sit in the low single digits or higher in even the closest battlegrounds. Historical certified results confirm that 0.01% or narrower outcomes have occurred only in isolated, low-turnout cases, not across the volume of races typical in midterms. With roughly two months remaining and no late developments narrowing any contest to that precision, traders view the probability of such an outcome as low.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes élections de mi-mandat fédérales ou à l'échelle de l'État américain se situeront-elles dans une fourchette de 0,01 % ?
Les élections de mi-mandat fédérales ou à l'échelle de l'État américain se situeront-elles dans une fourchette de 0,01 % ?
16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Current forecasts and polling for the November 3, 2026 midterms show no federal or statewide race projected to finish within a 0.01% margin.** Models from sources such as Silver Bulletin, Cook Political Report, and 270toWin rate numerous Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests as tossups or leans, yet expected margins sit in the low single digits or higher in even the closest battlegrounds. Historical certified results confirm that 0.01% or narrower outcomes have occurred only in isolated, low-turnout cases, not across the volume of races typical in midterms. With roughly two months remaining and no late developments narrowing any contest to that precision, traders view the probability of such an outcome as low.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$10Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Current forecasts and polling for the November 3, 2026 midterms show no federal or statewide race projected to finish within a 0.01% margin.** Models from sources such as Silver Bulletin, Cook Political Report, and 270toWin rate numerous Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests as tossups or leans, yet expected margins sit in the low single digits or higher in even the closest battlegrounds. Historical certified results confirm that 0.01% or narrower outcomes have occurred only in isolated, low-turnout cases, not across the volume of races typical in midterms. With roughly two months remaining and no late developments narrowing any contest to that precision, traders view the probability of such an outcome as low.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Volume
$10Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Current forecasts and polling for the November 3, 2026 midterms show no federal or statewide race projected to finish within a 0.01% margin.** Models from sources such as Silver Bulletin, Cook Political Report, and 270toWin rate numerous Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests as tossups or leans, yet expected margins sit in the low single digits or higher in even the closest battlegrounds. Historical certified results confirm that 0.01% or narrower outcomes have occurred only in isolated, low-turnout cases, not across the volume of races typical in midterms. With roughly two months remaining and no late developments narrowing any contest to that precision, traders view the probability of such an outcome as low.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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