**Apple’s ongoing efforts to qualify CXMT DRAM for China-market iPhones and MacBooks reflect acute supply pressure from AI-driven DRAM shortages, yet multiple barriers keep 2026 purchases unlikely.** The company has tested the chips and lobbied Washington for clearance, citing capacity constraints at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, but CXMT sits on the Pentagon’s Chinese military company list, drawing explicit opposition from Commerce officials and bipartisan lawmakers. CXMT’s output is already fully committed through 2026–2027 to domestic customers such as Tencent, ByteDance, Huawei, and Xiaomi, with prices quoted at or above prevailing market levels and no meaningful discount offered to Apple. Qualification and scaling for even limited China-only volumes would require time that exceeds the remaining months of 2026, especially given export-control risks and the absence of confirmed supply agreements. Trader sentiment therefore tilts toward “No,” weighting regulatory friction and allocation realities more heavily than exploratory testing.