Canada’s unemployment rate has held steady at 6.4% through August 2026, following modest declines earlier in the year and remaining well below both the 2016 annual average near 7.1% and the 2020 pandemic peak above 14%. Recent Statistics Canada data show employment contracting by 42,000 jobs in August amid a shrinking labor force, yet the jobless rate stayed unchanged as participation fell, reflecting a stable rather than deteriorating labor market. Market-implied odds heavily favor “No” because year-to-date readings and consensus forecasts around 6.5–6.6% for 2026 sit comfortably below post-2016 highs, with wage growth decelerating and no immediate recession signals. A sharp downturn triggered by trade disruptions or aggressive monetary tightening could still push the rate higher, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current economic releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 févr. 2027
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 févr. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate has held steady at 6.4% through August 2026, following modest declines earlier in the year and remaining well below both the 2016 annual average near 7.1% and the 2020 pandemic peak above 14%. Recent Statistics Canada data show employment contracting by 42,000 jobs in August amid a shrinking labor force, yet the jobless rate stayed unchanged as participation fell, reflecting a stable rather than deteriorating labor market. Market-implied odds heavily favor “No” because year-to-date readings and consensus forecasts around 6.5–6.6% for 2026 sit comfortably below post-2016 highs, with wage growth decelerating and no immediate recession signals. A sharp downturn triggered by trade disruptions or aggressive monetary tightening could still push the rate higher, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current economic releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$9,582Date de fin
15 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate has held steady at 6.4% through August 2026, following modest declines earlier in the year and remaining well below both the 2016 annual average near 7.1% and the 2020 pandemic peak above 14%. Recent Statistics Canada data show employment contracting by 42,000 jobs in August amid a shrinking labor force, yet the jobless rate stayed unchanged as participation fell, reflecting a stable rather than deteriorating labor market. Market-implied odds heavily favor “No” because year-to-date readings and consensus forecasts around 6.5–6.6% for 2026 sit comfortably below post-2016 highs, with wage growth decelerating and no immediate recession signals. A sharp downturn triggered by trade disruptions or aggressive monetary tightening could still push the rate higher, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current economic releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volume
$9,582Date de fin
15 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Canada’s unemployment rate has held steady at 6.4% through August 2026, following modest declines earlier in the year and remaining well below both the 2016 annual average near 7.1% and the 2020 pandemic peak above 14%. Recent Statistics Canada data show employment contracting by 42,000 jobs in August amid a shrinking labor force, yet the jobless rate stayed unchanged as participation fell, reflecting a stable rather than deteriorating labor market. Market-implied odds heavily favor “No” because year-to-date readings and consensus forecasts around 6.5–6.6% for 2026 sit comfortably below post-2016 highs, with wage growth decelerating and no immediate recession signals. A sharp downturn triggered by trade disruptions or aggressive monetary tightening could still push the rate higher, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current economic releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes