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icon for La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ?
Monde·Indicateurs Macro

La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ?

icon for La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ?
Monde·Indicateurs Macro

La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ?

Oui

85% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

85% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing new temporary resident targets by more than 40 percent from 2025 levels. This policy, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share of the population below 5 percent, has produced sustained net outflows of international students and temporary workers, driving three consecutive quarters of population decline by Q1 2026 according to Statistics Canada. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and private-sector forecasts anticipate flat or negative annual growth for 2026 as outflows continue, marking the second straight year of contraction after the first recorded annual drop in modern history. These verified policy settings and demographic data underpin trader consensus around an outsized 2026 decline relative to prior decades.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,813
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing new temporary resident targets by more than 40 percent from 2025 levels. This policy, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share of the population below 5 percent, has produced sustained net outflows of international students and temporary workers, driving three consecutive quarters of population decline by Q1 2026 according to Statistics Canada. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and private-sector forecasts anticipate flat or negative annual growth for 2026 as outflows continue, marking the second straight year of contraction after the first recorded annual drop in modern history. These verified policy settings and demographic data underpin trader consensus around an outsized 2026 decline relative to prior decades.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,813
Date de fin
30 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Connexes

icon for La population du Canada a-t-elle augmenté ou diminué cette année ?

La population du Canada a-t-elle augmenté ou diminué cette année ?

20%
Augmenté
icon for Le Canada aura-t-il le taux de chômage le plus élevé depuis 2016 cette année ?

Le Canada aura-t-il le taux de chômage le plus élevé depuis 2016 cette année ?

7%
Oui
icon for Le taux de croissance du PIB du Canada en variation mensuelle en juin 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 0,2 % et 0,3 % ?

Le taux de croissance du PIB du Canada en variation mensuelle en juin 2026 sera-t-il compris entre 0,2 % et 0,3 % ?

68%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « La baisse de la population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » à 85%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 85¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 29, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » est « La baisse de la population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » à 85%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La baisse de population du Canada en 2026 sera-t-elle la plus importante jamais enregistrée ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.