Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data place Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at Bleaching Watch status, with accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below the Alert Level 1 threshold. Traders assign a 68.5% probability to “No” largely because seasonal sea-surface temperature trends and the four-month thermal stress outlook show limited additional heat stress accumulation through December 2026, even as a strengthening El Niño raises Pacific-wide risks. Historical patterns indicate Hawaii often experiences peak stress earlier in the year or during stronger, more prolonged events than currently projected, while recent global bleaching concluded in 2025 without pushing local conditions over the Alert Level 1 line. Upcoming weekly model updates and any rapid marine heatwave intensification remain key variables that could alter the market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?
Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?
Oui
32% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
Oui
32% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data place Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at Bleaching Watch status, with accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below the Alert Level 1 threshold. Traders assign a 68.5% probability to “No” largely because seasonal sea-surface temperature trends and the four-month thermal stress outlook show limited additional heat stress accumulation through December 2026, even as a strengthening El Niño raises Pacific-wide risks. Historical patterns indicate Hawaii often experiences peak stress earlier in the year or during stronger, more prolonged events than currently projected, while recent global bleaching concluded in 2025 without pushing local conditions over the Alert Level 1 line. Upcoming weekly model updates and any rapid marine heatwave intensification remain key variables that could alter the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$770Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETSource de résolution
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data place Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at Bleaching Watch status, with accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below the Alert Level 1 threshold. Traders assign a 68.5% probability to “No” largely because seasonal sea-surface temperature trends and the four-month thermal stress outlook show limited additional heat stress accumulation through December 2026, even as a strengthening El Niño raises Pacific-wide risks. Historical patterns indicate Hawaii often experiences peak stress earlier in the year or during stronger, more prolonged events than currently projected, while recent global bleaching concluded in 2025 without pushing local conditions over the Alert Level 1 line. Upcoming weekly model updates and any rapid marine heatwave intensification remain key variables that could alter the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$770Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETSource de résolution
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data place Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at Bleaching Watch status, with accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below the Alert Level 1 threshold. Traders assign a 68.5% probability to “No” largely because seasonal sea-surface temperature trends and the four-month thermal stress outlook show limited additional heat stress accumulation through December 2026, even as a strengthening El Niño raises Pacific-wide risks. Historical patterns indicate Hawaii often experiences peak stress earlier in the year or during stronger, more prolonged events than currently projected, while recent global bleaching concluded in 2025 without pushing local conditions over the Alert Level 1 line. Upcoming weekly model updates and any rapid marine heatwave intensification remain key variables that could alter the market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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