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icon for Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?
Climat Et Science·Changement Climatique

Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

icon for Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?
Climat Et Science·Changement Climatique

Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Oui

46% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

46% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used. Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current conditions show Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Watch status, with limited accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below Alert Level 1 thresholds (HotSpot ≥1 and DHW 4–8). A developing El Niño, officially noted by mid-2026, introduces elevated sea surface temperature risks for the northern Pacific through fall, yet seasonal patterns and model consensus suggest moderate rather than extreme heat stress accumulation before year-end. Key uncertainties center on ENSO intensity, regional SST anomaly persistence versus natural cooling, and divergence among climate forecast models regarding whether DHW will cross bleaching thresholds by December. Weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch outlooks, updated 5 km satellite data, and CFS-based four-month projections will provide decisive near-term signals for traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.

Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$770
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used. Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used. Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current conditions show Main Hawaiian Islands reefs at NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Watch status, with limited accumulated Degree Heating Weeks below Alert Level 1 thresholds (HotSpot ≥1 and DHW 4–8). A developing El Niño, officially noted by mid-2026, introduces elevated sea surface temperature risks for the northern Pacific through fall, yet seasonal patterns and model consensus suggest moderate rather than extreme heat stress accumulation before year-end. Key uncertainties center on ENSO intensity, regional SST anomaly persistence versus natural cooling, and divergence among climate forecast models regarding whether DHW will cross bleaching thresholds by December. Weekly NOAA Coral Reef Watch outlooks, updated 5 km satellite data, and CFS-based four-month projections will provide decisive near-term signals for traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.

Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$770
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used. Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".

Connexes

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Hawaï atteindra-t-elle le niveau d'alerte 1 pour le blanchissement des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » à 50%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 50¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 7, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » est « Hawaï atteindra-t-elle le niveau d'alerte 1 pour le blanchissement des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » à 50%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Hawaï atteindra-t-il le niveau 1 d'alerte de blanchiment des coraux d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.