Israel’s next legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17 after the coalition chose not to advance an earlier dissolution bill. This marks the first full four-year term for the legislature since 1988 and the first government to complete its term since 1973. The fixed legal timetable, combined with the absence of any successful push for a snap vote or postponement in recent months, underpins the 95.5% implied probability traders assign to the election occurring on schedule. Proportional representation rules and the statutory campaign calendar leave limited procedural flexibility. Realistic disruptions remain possible through a major security escalation requiring emergency measures, a sudden coalition fracture, or an unforeseen institutional crisis, though none have materialized close enough to the vote to shift consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
96% chance
$10,174 Vol.
$10,174 Vol.
27 oct. 2026
Oui
96% chance
$10,174 Vol.
$10,174 Vol.
27 oct. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s next legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17 after the coalition chose not to advance an earlier dissolution bill. This marks the first full four-year term for the legislature since 1988 and the first government to complete its term since 1973. The fixed legal timetable, combined with the absence of any successful push for a snap vote or postponement in recent months, underpins the 95.5% implied probability traders assign to the election occurring on schedule. Proportional representation rules and the statutory campaign calendar leave limited procedural flexibility. Realistic disruptions remain possible through a major security escalation requiring emergency measures, a sudden coalition fracture, or an unforeseen institutional crisis, though none have materialized close enough to the vote to shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$10,174Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s next legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17 after the coalition chose not to advance an earlier dissolution bill. This marks the first full four-year term for the legislature since 1988 and the first government to complete its term since 1973. The fixed legal timetable, combined with the absence of any successful push for a snap vote or postponement in recent months, underpins the 95.5% implied probability traders assign to the election occurring on schedule. Proportional representation rules and the statutory campaign calendar leave limited procedural flexibility. Realistic disruptions remain possible through a major security escalation requiring emergency measures, a sudden coalition fracture, or an unforeseen institutional crisis, though none have materialized close enough to the vote to shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,174Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Israel’s next legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17 after the coalition chose not to advance an earlier dissolution bill. This marks the first full four-year term for the legislature since 1988 and the first government to complete its term since 1973. The fixed legal timetable, combined with the absence of any successful push for a snap vote or postponement in recent months, underpins the 95.5% implied probability traders assign to the election occurring on schedule. Proportional representation rules and the statutory campaign calendar leave limited procedural flexibility. Realistic disruptions remain possible through a major security escalation requiring emergency measures, a sudden coalition fracture, or an unforeseen institutional crisis, though none have materialized close enough to the vote to shift consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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