Lando Norris sits on two 2026 wins after back-to-back victories from pole in Hungary and the Netherlands, yet McLaren has slipped to the slowest of the top four teams amid the new technical regulations. Recent results show inconsistent pace, multiple retirements, and a lack of near-term upgrades, leaving the papaya cars behind Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull. With six races remaining on a calendar featuring circuits where Norris has strong historical data, the outcome hinges on whether McLaren can restore competitiveness and capitalize on any Mercedes or Red Bull slips. Trader consensus near even money reflects Norris’s proven race-winning ability against the clear deficit in current form and development trajectory.