Reza Pahlavi remains in long-term exile with no formal position inside Iran’s governing institutions or security forces, limiting his ability to assume de facto leadership by year-end. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, the Islamic Republic survived under a new supreme leader, reached a ceasefire with Washington, and showed no signs of collapse or large-scale military defections sufficient for a transition. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, explicitly ruled out installing the exiled prince, while donor frustration, internal opposition divisions, and his lack of an organized domestic network further constrained momentum. Traders price the outcome at 97.1% No because these structural and political barriers have persisted through the resolution window, though rapid internal upheaval or unexpected institutional shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourReza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l'Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
3% chance
$11,766,758 Vol.
$11,766,758 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$11,766,758 Vol.
$11,766,758 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi remains in long-term exile with no formal position inside Iran’s governing institutions or security forces, limiting his ability to assume de facto leadership by year-end. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, the Islamic Republic survived under a new supreme leader, reached a ceasefire with Washington, and showed no signs of collapse or large-scale military defections sufficient for a transition. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, explicitly ruled out installing the exiled prince, while donor frustration, internal opposition divisions, and his lack of an organized domestic network further constrained momentum. Traders price the outcome at 97.1% No because these structural and political barriers have persisted through the resolution window, though rapid internal upheaval or unexpected institutional shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,766,758Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi remains in long-term exile with no formal position inside Iran’s governing institutions or security forces, limiting his ability to assume de facto leadership by year-end. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, the Islamic Republic survived under a new supreme leader, reached a ceasefire with Washington, and showed no signs of collapse or large-scale military defections sufficient for a transition. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, explicitly ruled out installing the exiled prince, while donor frustration, internal opposition divisions, and his lack of an organized domestic network further constrained momentum. Traders price the outcome at 97.1% No because these structural and political barriers have persisted through the resolution window, though rapid internal upheaval or unexpected institutional shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,766,758Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Reza Pahlavi remains in long-term exile with no formal position inside Iran’s governing institutions or security forces, limiting his ability to assume de facto leadership by year-end. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, the Islamic Republic survived under a new supreme leader, reached a ceasefire with Washington, and showed no signs of collapse or large-scale military defections sufficient for a transition. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, explicitly ruled out installing the exiled prince, while donor frustration, internal opposition divisions, and his lack of an organized domestic network further constrained momentum. Traders price the outcome at 97.1% No because these structural and political barriers have persisted through the resolution window, though rapid internal upheaval or unexpected institutional shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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