Russia conducts nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including planning sessions in Kaliningrad and other regions, to assess capacity for absorbing large numbers of recruits if ordered. Ukrainian officials report expectations of a post-election call-up targeting around 300,000 personnel, potentially avoiding major cities, while Russian recruitment through contracts has slowed amid high casualties. Officials in Moscow continue to deny immediate plans for a new forced mobilization, noting reliance on voluntary enlistment and the 2022 decree's ongoing legal status. The September 2026 State Duma elections create a political window, with any announcement likely deferred until afterward to limit domestic backlash. Traders monitor official statements, recruitment data, and frontline developments for signals of escalation or sustained denial.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Russie annoncera-t-elle une nouvelle mobilisation forcée d'ici… ?
La Russie annoncera-t-elle une nouvelle mobilisation forcée d'ici… ?
NOUVEAU
$27,201 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia conducts nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including planning sessions in Kaliningrad and other regions, to assess capacity for absorbing large numbers of recruits if ordered. Ukrainian officials report expectations of a post-election call-up targeting around 300,000 personnel, potentially avoiding major cities, while Russian recruitment through contracts has slowed amid high casualties. Officials in Moscow continue to deny immediate plans for a new forced mobilization, noting reliance on voluntary enlistment and the 2022 decree's ongoing legal status. The September 2026 State Duma elections create a political window, with any announcement likely deferred until afterward to limit domestic backlash. Traders monitor official statements, recruitment data, and frontline developments for signals of escalation or sustained denial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Marché ouvert : Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$27,201Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia conducts nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including planning sessions in Kaliningrad and other regions, to assess capacity for absorbing large numbers of recruits if ordered. Ukrainian officials report expectations of a post-election call-up targeting around 300,000 personnel, potentially avoiding major cities, while Russian recruitment through contracts has slowed amid high casualties. Officials in Moscow continue to deny immediate plans for a new forced mobilization, noting reliance on voluntary enlistment and the 2022 decree's ongoing legal status. The September 2026 State Duma elections create a political window, with any announcement likely deferred until afterward to limit domestic backlash. Traders monitor official statements, recruitment data, and frontline developments for signals of escalation or sustained denial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Volume
$27,201Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia conducts nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises, including planning sessions in Kaliningrad and other regions, to assess capacity for absorbing large numbers of recruits if ordered. Ukrainian officials report expectations of a post-election call-up targeting around 300,000 personnel, potentially avoiding major cities, while Russian recruitment through contracts has slowed amid high casualties. Officials in Moscow continue to deny immediate plans for a new forced mobilization, noting reliance on voluntary enlistment and the 2022 decree's ongoing legal status. The September 2026 State Duma elections create a political window, with any announcement likely deferred until afterward to limit domestic backlash. Traders monitor official statements, recruitment data, and frontline developments for signals of escalation or sustained denial.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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