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Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

$87,431 Vol.

30 juin 2026
Polymarket

$87,431 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$58,772 Vol.

1%

September 30

$529 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and ground probes around Dovha Balka, a settlement southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, as part of efforts to advance along the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. On June 15, 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control of the village following reported flag-raising activity, though independent assessments indicate these claims rely on unverified or possibly AI-generated footage and lack confirmation of sustained territorial gains. Ukrainian units have countered with drone strikes, artillery responses, and localized counterattacks that disrupted Russian footholds in the area. Broader frontline dynamics in mid-2026 show Russian forces achieving incremental tactical pressure near Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian defenses and long-range strikes limited major breakthroughs, with traders monitoring any verified shifts in control or official confirmations that could resolve the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png

Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$87,431
Date de fin
30 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 5:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and ground probes around Dovha Balka, a settlement southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, as part of efforts to advance along the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. On June 15, 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control of the village following reported flag-raising activity, though independent assessments indicate these claims rely on unverified or possibly AI-generated footage and lack confirmation of sustained territorial gains. Ukrainian units have countered with drone strikes, artillery responses, and localized counterattacks that disrupted Russian footholds in the area. Broader frontline dynamics in mid-2026 show Russian forces achieving incremental tactical pressure near Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian defenses and long-range strikes limited major breakthroughs, with traders monitoring any verified shifts in control or official confirmations that could resolve the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png

Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$87,431
Date de fin
30 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 5:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « September 30 » à 39%, suivi de « June 30 » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 39¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 39% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? » a généré $87.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 13, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? » est « September 30 » à 39%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 39% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « June 30 » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.