Russian forces intensified direct assaults on Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast beginning in late July 2026, shifting from prior infiltration probes to attacks on eastern apartment blocks and surrounding areas near Rai-Oleksandrivka. The settlement serves as the immediate eastern gateway to Sloviansk, positioning it as a prerequisite for any broader advance on the city. Ukrainian defenses, centered on the 81st Airmobile Brigade, have reported ongoing drone strikes and efforts to counter small reconnaissance groups amid incremental Russian territorial gains elsewhere in Donetsk. Independent assessments through mid-August show Russian units approaching or briefly entering peripheral zones without confirmed control of settlement territory per mapping standards used for market resolution. Broader Russian operations in the sector continue at a measured pace amid high attrition, with limited Ukrainian counter-moves reported in the immediate area.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Russie va-t-elle s'emparer de Mykolaivka d'ici... ?
La Russie va-t-elle s'emparer de Mykolaivka d'ici... ?
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre
24%
31 décembre
48%
$0.00 Vol.
31 octobre
$0 Vol.
24%
31 décembre
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces intensified direct assaults on Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast beginning in late July 2026, shifting from prior infiltration probes to attacks on eastern apartment blocks and surrounding areas near Rai-Oleksandrivka. The settlement serves as the immediate eastern gateway to Sloviansk, positioning it as a prerequisite for any broader advance on the city. Ukrainian defenses, centered on the 81st Airmobile Brigade, have reported ongoing drone strikes and efforts to counter small reconnaissance groups amid incremental Russian territorial gains elsewhere in Donetsk. Independent assessments through mid-August show Russian units approaching or briefly entering peripheral zones without confirmed control of settlement territory per mapping standards used for market resolution. Broader Russian operations in the sector continue at a measured pace amid high attrition, with limited Ukrainian counter-moves reported in the immediate area.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces intensified direct assaults on Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast beginning in late July 2026, shifting from prior infiltration probes to attacks on eastern apartment blocks and surrounding areas near Rai-Oleksandrivka. The settlement serves as the immediate eastern gateway to Sloviansk, positioning it as a prerequisite for any broader advance on the city. Ukrainian defenses, centered on the 81st Airmobile Brigade, have reported ongoing drone strikes and efforts to counter small reconnaissance groups amid incremental Russian territorial gains elsewhere in Donetsk. Independent assessments through mid-August show Russian units approaching or briefly entering peripheral zones without confirmed control of settlement territory per mapping standards used for market resolution. Broader Russian operations in the sector continue at a measured pace amid high attrition, with limited Ukrainian counter-moves reported in the immediate area.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces intensified direct assaults on Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast beginning in late July 2026, shifting from prior infiltration probes to attacks on eastern apartment blocks and surrounding areas near Rai-Oleksandrivka. The settlement serves as the immediate eastern gateway to Sloviansk, positioning it as a prerequisite for any broader advance on the city. Ukrainian defenses, centered on the 81st Airmobile Brigade, have reported ongoing drone strikes and efforts to counter small reconnaissance groups amid incremental Russian territorial gains elsewhere in Donetsk. Independent assessments through mid-August show Russian units approaching or briefly entering peripheral zones without confirmed control of settlement territory per mapping standards used for market resolution. Broader Russian operations in the sector continue at a measured pace amid high attrition, with limited Ukrainian counter-moves reported in the immediate area.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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