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Géopolitique·Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?

icon for La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?

NOUVEAU
31 mai 2026
Polymarket

$6,066 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mai

$616 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have maintained persistent ground assaults and drone strikes toward Serhiivka, a village west of the Pokrovsk logistics hub in Donetsk Oblast, yet ISW assessments through mid-May 2026 show no confirmed territorial gains at the specific intersection defining market resolution. Ukrainian forces have conducted counterattacks and repelled advances in the broader Pokrovsk sector, including near Hryshyne and Bilytske, amid reports of high attrition on both sides. Trader consensus reflects these stalled dynamics and fortified Ukrainian positions, with low implied probabilities for near-term capture by late May. Ongoing daily operations and any shifts in Western military aid remain the primary variables that could alter frontline momentum before scheduled resolution windows.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png

Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png

Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$6,066
Date de fin
31 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have maintained persistent ground assaults and drone strikes toward Serhiivka, a village west of the Pokrovsk logistics hub in Donetsk Oblast, yet ISW assessments through mid-May 2026 show no confirmed territorial gains at the specific intersection defining market resolution. Ukrainian forces have conducted counterattacks and repelled advances in the broader Pokrovsk sector, including near Hryshyne and Bilytske, amid reports of high attrition on both sides. Trader consensus reflects these stalled dynamics and fortified Ukrainian positions, with low implied probabilities for near-term capture by late May. Ongoing daily operations and any shifts in Western military aid remain the primary variables that could alter frontline momentum before scheduled resolution windows.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png

Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png

Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$6,066
Date de fin
31 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 1:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Questions fréquentes

« La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 mai » à 4%, suivi de « 30 avril » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 4¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 4% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 24, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » est « 31 mai » à seulement 4%, avec « 30 avril » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.