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Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?
Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...?

$48,219 Vol.

31 juil. 2026
Polymarket

$48,219 Vol.

Polymarket

July 31

$8,952 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces claimed control of Verkhnia Tersa, a village northwest of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, around May 22, 2026, citing advances by units in the Vostok grouping following months of incremental pressure, strikes, and assaults documented in the sector. Ukrainian reports confirm repeated Russian attempts to break through southwest of Huliaipole and seize the settlement by late May. Broader battlefield trends show Russian territorial gains in 2026 slowed sharply compared with 2025, while Ukrainian forces reported net recapture of over 600 square kilometers through mid-year amid intensified clashes near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. Prediction markets tied to ISW mapping of confirmed control reflect trader assessment of these dynamics and any subsequent consolidation or Ukrainian counter-pressure before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png

Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png

Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$48,219
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces claimed control of Verkhnia Tersa, a village northwest of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, around May 22, 2026, citing advances by units in the Vostok grouping following months of incremental pressure, strikes, and assaults documented in the sector. Ukrainian reports confirm repeated Russian attempts to break through southwest of Huliaipole and seize the settlement by late May. Broader battlefield trends show Russian territorial gains in 2026 slowed sharply compared with 2025, while Ukrainian forces reported net recapture of over 600 square kilometers through mid-year amid intensified clashes near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. Prediction markets tied to ISW mapping of confirmed control reflect trader assessment of these dynamics and any subsequent consolidation or Ukrainian counter-pressure before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png

Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png

Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$48,219
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « July 31 » à 21%, suivi de « May 31 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 21¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 21% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...? » a généré $48.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 20, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...? » est « July 31 » à 21%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 21% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « May 31 » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by...? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.