La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ?
$5,361,955 Vol.
31 déc. 2025
31 décembre 2026
$259,111 Vol.
6%
$5,361,955 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$259,111 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US intelligence assessments from early August 2026 indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO resolve with limited hybrid actions or a small-scale incursion targeting eastern flank members such as the Baltic states or Poland as early as autumn 2026, shifting from prior views that Ukraine operations would preclude direct NATO challenges. Russia continues gray-zone tactics including airspace violations, infrastructure sabotage, and proxy operations while advancing maximalist goals in Ukraine. NATO maintains Article 5 commitments amid alliance modernization and deterrence efforts, though analysts note potential windows tied to alliance cohesion and Russian military reconstitution timelines extending through 2029. Recent incidents such as cross-border strikes and drone activity underscore escalation risks without confirmed plans for conventional invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
US intelligence assessments from early August 2026 indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO resolve with limited hybrid actions or a small-scale incursion targeting eastern flank members such as the Baltic states or Poland as early as autumn 2026, shifting from prior views that Ukraine operations would preclude direct NATO challenges. Russia continues gray-zone tactics including airspace violations, infrastructure sabotage, and proxy operations while advancing maximalist goals in Ukraine. NATO maintains Article 5 commitments amid alliance modernization and deterrence efforts, though analysts note potential windows tied to alliance cohesion and Russian military reconstitution timelines extending through 2029. Recent incidents such as cross-border strikes and drone activity underscore escalation risks without confirmed plans for conventional invasion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US intelligence assessments from early August 2026 indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO resolve with limited hybrid actions or a small-scale incursion targeting eastern flank members such as the Baltic states or Poland as early as autumn 2026, shifting from prior views that Ukraine operations would preclude direct NATO challenges. Russia continues gray-zone tactics including airspace violations, infrastructure sabotage, and proxy operations while advancing maximalist goals in Ukraine. NATO maintains Article 5 commitments amid alliance modernization and deterrence efforts, though analysts note potential windows tied to alliance cohesion and Russian military reconstitution timelines extending through 2029. Recent incidents such as cross-border strikes and drone activity underscore escalation risks without confirmed plans for conventional invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
US intelligence assessments from early August 2026 indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO resolve with limited hybrid actions or a small-scale incursion targeting eastern flank members such as the Baltic states or Poland as early as autumn 2026, shifting from prior views that Ukraine operations would preclude direct NATO challenges. Russia continues gray-zone tactics including airspace violations, infrastructure sabotage, and proxy operations while advancing maximalist goals in Ukraine. NATO maintains Article 5 commitments amid alliance modernization and deterrence efforts, though analysts note potential windows tied to alliance cohesion and Russian military reconstitution timelines extending through 2029. Recent incidents such as cross-border strikes and drone activity underscore escalation risks without confirmed plans for conventional invasion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
« La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 6%, suivi de « 31 décembre 2025 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 6¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 6% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » a généré $5.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 28, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre 2026 » à seulement 6%, avec « 31 décembre 2025 » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $5.4 million échangés sur « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 6¢ pour « 31 décembre 2026 » sur le marché « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 6% que « 31 décembre 2026 » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 6¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 94¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
La date de fin prévue du marché « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est passée, mais le marché n'a pas encore été officiellement résolu. La date de fin indique quand l'événement sous-jacent est censé se produire ou devenir connaissable. Le marché reste ouvert au trading jusqu'à ce que le résultat soit formellement résolu. Consultez le statut de résolution et la section « Règles » sur cette page pour les mises à jour.
Le marché « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » a une communauté active de 63 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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