Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, regulatory barriers to selling a steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle, and persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software have anchored trader consensus on "No" at 86.5%. Limited units began rolling off the line in early 2026 with an initial April mass-production target, but Q2 updates eliminated volume goals for the year amid battery and manufacturing hurdles. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing and consumer availability before 2027, yet analysts note meaningful robotaxi revenue and private sales remain unlikely until FSD V15 or equivalent autonomy clears safety thresholds. Key near-term catalysts include any FSD regulatory milestones or accelerated 2027 launch signals that could shift implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
14% chance
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
14% chance
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, regulatory barriers to selling a steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle, and persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software have anchored trader consensus on "No" at 86.5%. Limited units began rolling off the line in early 2026 with an initial April mass-production target, but Q2 updates eliminated volume goals for the year amid battery and manufacturing hurdles. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing and consumer availability before 2027, yet analysts note meaningful robotaxi revenue and private sales remain unlikely until FSD V15 or equivalent autonomy clears safety thresholds. Key near-term catalysts include any FSD regulatory milestones or accelerated 2027 launch signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,914Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, regulatory barriers to selling a steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle, and persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software have anchored trader consensus on "No" at 86.5%. Limited units began rolling off the line in early 2026 with an initial April mass-production target, but Q2 updates eliminated volume goals for the year amid battery and manufacturing hurdles. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing and consumer availability before 2027, yet analysts note meaningful robotaxi revenue and private sales remain unlikely until FSD V15 or equivalent autonomy clears safety thresholds. Key near-term catalysts include any FSD regulatory milestones or accelerated 2027 launch signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,914Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's slow Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, regulatory barriers to selling a steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle, and persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software have anchored trader consensus on "No" at 86.5%. Limited units began rolling off the line in early 2026 with an initial April mass-production target, but Q2 updates eliminated volume goals for the year amid battery and manufacturing hurdles. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing and consumer availability before 2027, yet analysts note meaningful robotaxi revenue and private sales remain unlikely until FSD V15 or equivalent autonomy clears safety thresholds. Key near-term catalysts include any FSD regulatory milestones or accelerated 2027 launch signals that could shift implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes