**Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and rapid observed strengthening of the 2026–27 El Niño underpin the 71.5% market-implied odds for a record event.** Official guidance assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong episode (Niño 3.4 or RONI peak of at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27, with 75% odds that the October–December RONI reaches +2.5°C or higher—surpassing the 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 benchmarks on that index. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have climbed to roughly +2.9°C amid SST departures exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific, reflecting swift intensification and coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies. Multi-model ensembles reinforce this trajectory toward a peak near October–December, though forecast spread and index definitions introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of full seasonal resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEl Niño 2026-2027 sera-t-il le plus fort jamais enregistré ?
El Niño 2026-2027 sera-t-il le plus fort jamais enregistré ?
Oui
72% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mars 2027
Oui
72% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 mars 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and rapid observed strengthening of the 2026–27 El Niño underpin the 71.5% market-implied odds for a record event.** Official guidance assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong episode (Niño 3.4 or RONI peak of at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27, with 75% odds that the October–December RONI reaches +2.5°C or higher—surpassing the 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 benchmarks on that index. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have climbed to roughly +2.9°C amid SST departures exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific, reflecting swift intensification and coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies. Multi-model ensembles reinforce this trajectory toward a peak near October–December, though forecast spread and index definitions introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of full seasonal resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$286Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and rapid observed strengthening of the 2026–27 El Niño underpin the 71.5% market-implied odds for a record event.** Official guidance assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong episode (Niño 3.4 or RONI peak of at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27, with 75% odds that the October–December RONI reaches +2.5°C or higher—surpassing the 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 benchmarks on that index. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have climbed to roughly +2.9°C amid SST departures exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific, reflecting swift intensification and coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies. Multi-model ensembles reinforce this trajectory toward a peak near October–December, though forecast spread and index definitions introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of full seasonal resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Volume
$286Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...**Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks and rapid observed strengthening of the 2026–27 El Niño underpin the 71.5% market-implied odds for a record event.** Official guidance assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong episode (Niño 3.4 or RONI peak of at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026–27, with 75% odds that the October–December RONI reaches +2.5°C or higher—surpassing the 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 benchmarks on that index. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have climbed to roughly +2.9°C amid SST departures exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific, reflecting swift intensification and coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies. Multi-model ensembles reinforce this trajectory toward a peak near October–December, though forecast spread and index definitions introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of full seasonal resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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