The Sudanese Armed Forces’ recapture of Greater Khartoum in March 2025, followed by full consolidation of the capital region by May 2025 and the government’s return in January 2026, has left the Rapid Support Forces displaced to Darfur and parts of Kordofan with no sustained ground presence near the city. Recent RSF drone strikes on Khartoum targets in early May 2026 have caused limited damage but reflect long-range harassment rather than any credible offensive to retake the capital. Traders assign 97.8 percent probability to the “no” outcome because the RSF’s current front lines lie hundreds of kilometers west, its supply lines favor western strongholds, and SAF air and ground operations continue to interdict any eastward movement. A realistic shift before June 30 would require an unprecedented, rapid RSF mobilization across contested territory that has shown no signs of materializing in the past twelve months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes RSF vont-elles s'emparer de Khartoum d'ici le 30 juin ?
Les RSF vont-elles s'emparer de Khartoum d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$21,751 Vol.
$21,751 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$21,751 Vol.
$21,751 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces’ recapture of Greater Khartoum in March 2025, followed by full consolidation of the capital region by May 2025 and the government’s return in January 2026, has left the Rapid Support Forces displaced to Darfur and parts of Kordofan with no sustained ground presence near the city. Recent RSF drone strikes on Khartoum targets in early May 2026 have caused limited damage but reflect long-range harassment rather than any credible offensive to retake the capital. Traders assign 97.8 percent probability to the “no” outcome because the RSF’s current front lines lie hundreds of kilometers west, its supply lines favor western strongholds, and SAF air and ground operations continue to interdict any eastward movement. A realistic shift before June 30 would require an unprecedented, rapid RSF mobilization across contested territory that has shown no signs of materializing in the past twelve months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Volume
$21,751Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces’ recapture of Greater Khartoum in March 2025, followed by full consolidation of the capital region by May 2025 and the government’s return in January 2026, has left the Rapid Support Forces displaced to Darfur and parts of Kordofan with no sustained ground presence near the city. Recent RSF drone strikes on Khartoum targets in early May 2026 have caused limited damage but reflect long-range harassment rather than any credible offensive to retake the capital. Traders assign 97.8 percent probability to the “no” outcome because the RSF’s current front lines lie hundreds of kilometers west, its supply lines favor western strongholds, and SAF air and ground operations continue to interdict any eastward movement. A realistic shift before June 30 would require an unprecedented, rapid RSF mobilization across contested territory that has shown no signs of materializing in the past twelve months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$21,751Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Sudanese Armed Forces’ recapture of Greater Khartoum in March 2025, followed by full consolidation of the capital region by May 2025 and the government’s return in January 2026, has left the Rapid Support Forces displaced to Darfur and parts of Kordofan with no sustained ground presence near the city. Recent RSF drone strikes on Khartoum targets in early May 2026 have caused limited damage but reflect long-range harassment rather than any credible offensive to retake the capital. Traders assign 97.8 percent probability to the “no” outcome because the RSF’s current front lines lie hundreds of kilometers west, its supply lines favor western strongholds, and SAF air and ground operations continue to interdict any eastward movement. A realistic shift before June 30 would require an unprecedented, rapid RSF mobilization across contested territory that has shown no signs of materializing in the past twelve months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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