Skip to main content
icon for Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

icon for Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

50% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
50% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.House Armed Services Committee approval of H.R. 8800, the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, by a 44-12 vote in early June advanced the measure to the floor amid ongoing debates over defense spending levels, acquisition reforms, and policy riders. Recent Rules Committee action encountered setbacks when a June 30 procedural vote failed due to Republican defections, creating uncertainty about floor timing ahead of the July recess. Bipartisan committee support and the bill's annual tradition contrast with these internal divisions and competing legislative priorities, producing closely balanced trader odds near 50 percent. Floor passage by July 31 would likely hinge on leadership negotiations to secure a rule, amendment strategies, and turnout among rank-and-file members wary of specific provisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities.

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 by July 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying bill does not need to pass as a standalone bill or be titled exactly as above, but it must set forth policies and authorities for Fiscal Year 2026 for Department of Defense programs and activities. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 50% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 50¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 1, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31? » est de 50% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 50% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.