The recent inauguration of Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella and his administration’s swift alignment with U.S. priorities have reinforced a longstanding security partnership, driving the 98% implied probability against invasion. De la Espriella authorized joint counternarcotics operations under the Shield of the Americas initiative, including U.S. support for targeting trafficking networks, while Washington pledged roughly $1 billion in assistance and welcomed Colombia as a key partner in the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition. These steps build on decades of bilateral cooperation rather than confrontation, with both governments emphasizing sovereignty-respecting coordination against shared threats. Domestic legal challenges in Colombia over foreign military presence remain procedural and have not disrupted the framework. Trader consensus reflects this trajectory, though a sudden breakdown in relations, leadership change, or major escalation in regional trafficking conflicts could still introduce uncertainty before year-end.