Under the Trump administration, trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 at just 23.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of concrete military mobilization despite escalated tensions. On May 1, 2026, President Trump issued Executive Order 14404 imposing sanctions on Cuban officials for repression and national security threats, expanding secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities aiding Havana. U.S. surveillance flights over Cuba have surged since February, reflecting monitoring of its adversarial ties, yet officials insist no imminent military action is planned. April diplomatic talks in Havana focused on reforms rather than confrontation, underscoring sanctions and pressure as preferred tools amid competing priorities like Iran. Without congressional backing or troop deployments, barriers to invasion remain high.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,950,462 Vol.
$1,950,462 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$1,950,462 Vol.
$1,950,462 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Under the Trump administration, trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 at just 23.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of concrete military mobilization despite escalated tensions. On May 1, 2026, President Trump issued Executive Order 14404 imposing sanctions on Cuban officials for repression and national security threats, expanding secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities aiding Havana. U.S. surveillance flights over Cuba have surged since February, reflecting monitoring of its adversarial ties, yet officials insist no imminent military action is planned. April diplomatic talks in Havana focused on reforms rather than confrontation, underscoring sanctions and pressure as preferred tools amid competing priorities like Iran. Without congressional backing or troop deployments, barriers to invasion remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,950,462Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Under the Trump administration, trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 at just 23.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of concrete military mobilization despite escalated tensions. On May 1, 2026, President Trump issued Executive Order 14404 imposing sanctions on Cuban officials for repression and national security threats, expanding secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities aiding Havana. U.S. surveillance flights over Cuba have surged since February, reflecting monitoring of its adversarial ties, yet officials insist no imminent military action is planned. April diplomatic talks in Havana focused on reforms rather than confrontation, underscoring sanctions and pressure as preferred tools amid competing priorities like Iran. Without congressional backing or troop deployments, barriers to invasion remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,950,462Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Under the Trump administration, trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 at just 23.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of concrete military mobilization despite escalated tensions. On May 1, 2026, President Trump issued Executive Order 14404 imposing sanctions on Cuban officials for repression and national security threats, expanding secondary sanctions risks for foreign entities aiding Havana. U.S. surveillance flights over Cuba have surged since February, reflecting monitoring of its adversarial ties, yet officials insist no imminent military action is planned. April diplomatic talks in Havana focused on reforms rather than confrontation, underscoring sanctions and pressure as preferred tools amid competing priorities like Iran. Without congressional backing or troop deployments, barriers to invasion remain high.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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