The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, centered on a fuel and oil import blockade via executive order since January 2026, has driven trader consensus toward a low probability of direct U.S. military invasion this year. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, including meetings with Cuban officials and intermediaries, alongside efforts to identify internal leadership alternatives, reflect a preference for economic coercion and negotiated transition over kinetic action. Pentagon positioning in the Caribbean and public statements about contingency planning have not translated into operational invasion preparations, consistent with senior military denials of rehearsals for seizure or occupation. With five months remaining in 2026 and no escalation beyond sanctions or tariffs on third-party suppliers, the 93.5% implied probability for no invasion aligns with the absence of verified military mobilization or formal authorization for hostilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$3,256,962 Vol.
$3,256,962 Vol.
Oui
$3,256,962 Vol.
$3,256,962 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, centered on a fuel and oil import blockade via executive order since January 2026, has driven trader consensus toward a low probability of direct U.S. military invasion this year. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, including meetings with Cuban officials and intermediaries, alongside efforts to identify internal leadership alternatives, reflect a preference for economic coercion and negotiated transition over kinetic action. Pentagon positioning in the Caribbean and public statements about contingency planning have not translated into operational invasion preparations, consistent with senior military denials of rehearsals for seizure or occupation. With five months remaining in 2026 and no escalation beyond sanctions or tariffs on third-party suppliers, the 93.5% implied probability for no invasion aligns with the absence of verified military mobilization or formal authorization for hostilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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