Trump's January 2026 reversal at Davos, explicitly ruling out military force after earlier threats to annex Greenland, shifted U.S. efforts toward negotiated base expansions and security arrangements under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark Defense Agreement. NATO membership for Denmark, allied opposition to any sovereignty violation, and ongoing bilateral talks on additional facilities in southern Greenland have reinforced trader consensus against an invasion this year. With no military mobilization or formal declarations of intent since the policy pivot, and focus now on Arctic surveillance cooperation amid Russia-China concerns, the 96.4% "No" probability reflects these diplomatic and alliance constraints. Late-year developments such as stalled negotiations or renewed presidential statements could still introduce limited uncertainty before December 31.