Strong diplomatic and economic interdependence between the United States and Mexico, combined with ongoing bilateral security cooperation against cartels, underpins the 97.4% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Early-year rhetoric on potential strikes or troop deployments has not translated into mobilization, congressional authorization, or operational planning, while joint efforts have produced measurable results including extraditions, fentanyl seizures, and targeted operations. Deep USMCA trade ties, shared border infrastructure, and legal constraints on unilateral military action further reinforce trader expectations. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden collapse in cooperation, major cross-border attacks attributed to Mexican territory, or unforeseen policy reversals requiring legislative approval.