Strong U.S.-Mexico economic interdependence under USMCA, combined with sustained bilateral security cooperation yielding extraditions, fentanyl seizures, and measurable reductions in cross-border trafficking, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 invasion. Early-year rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding potential strikes on cartels prompted Mexican rejection and U.S. congressional pushback emphasizing sovereignty and alliance costs, yet joint mechanisms such as the Security Implementation Group have continued delivering results through mid-2026 without escalation to ground operations. Full-scale invasion faces substantial barriers including domestic political opposition, alliance disruption risks, and preference for targeted cooperation. Late-breaking cartel incidents or sharp deterioration in diplomatic channels remain the primary low-probability catalysts that could still shift assessments before year-end.