The January 2026 U.S. raid capturing Nicolás Maduro shifted Venezuela policy toward stabilization and transition under interim President Delcy Rodríguez, with roughly 2,000 U.S. personnel focused on humanitarian relief after June earthquakes and security cooperation rather than sustained ground operations. Washington has secured influence over oil sales, advanced energy deals with U.S. firms, and backed ongoing talks between interim officials and select opposition figures aimed at judicial reforms and eventual elections. These steps, alongside sanctions adjustments and reduced emphasis on prior designations, have shaped trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely absent major escalation in drug interdiction, regional instability, or breakdown in the current diplomatic track. Scheduled resumption of transition negotiations and any further U.S. policy announcements could still influence assessments of near-term military risk.