Trump has publicly stated he has no plans to meet Flávio Bolsonaro and prefers to avoid deeper involvement in Brazilian politics to manage bilateral relations with President Lula da Silva. Following Flávio’s October 2026 electoral defeat and arrival in the United States under humanitarian parole approved by the Trump administration, the president reiterated at Mar-a-Lago that the defeated candidate could remain but emphasized non-engagement. This stance aligns with Trump’s comments that he gets along with Lula and does not wish to endorse claims of electoral irregularities or opposition leadership from exile. Flávio met Trump once in the Oval Office in May 2026 but has had no further in-person contact since arriving in Florida, and recent reporting through mid-November confirms the absence of scheduled meetings. Traders appear to weigh these explicit signals, the short remaining window in 2026, and the administration’s preference for stable diplomacy over ideological alignment as the dominant drivers behind the current 84% implied probability of no meeting.