Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Trump pardon for Tiger Woods by June 30 because the 15-time major champion faces no federal charges, convictions, or ongoing legal proceedings that would typically trigger clemency. Woods has instead concentrated on his PGA Tour schedule, recent major appearances, and physical conditioning after past injuries, keeping him squarely in the athlete category rather than any political or criminal context. Presidential pardons historically address documented cases with clear prosecutorial history, and nothing in Woods’ public record or current form aligns with that pattern. An unexpected development such as new charges, a late legal filing, or a sudden policy shift could still move the market, though no credible signals point in that direction.