**USD/JPY trades near 158 amid a wide U.S.-Japan policy gap, with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish repricing—pricing in potential October or December rate hikes—supporting the dollar against the Bank of Japan’s 1.25% policy rate following its September move.** Recent weak U.S. September jobs data (29k vs. 90k expected) has tempered near-term Fed expectations, while Tokyo core inflation at 2.7% keeps BoJ tightening prospects alive, though less aggressive than priced earlier. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields above 5.2% and intervention risks near 160 continue to cap upside, creating a 155–160 range into year-end. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming U.S. CPI and the late-October FOMC meeting, which will shape implied probabilities around rate differentials and yen support.