The tight bunching of implied probabilities around Spain and France at the top reflects comparable squad depth, youth talent pipelines, and strong recent tournament records among multiple European sides as the group stage opens. Portugal and England follow closely due to established attacking cores and defensive organization, while Brazil and defending champion Argentina sit just behind amid questions over key player availability and integration. Early results for hosts like the United States have produced modest shifts lower in the field, but the overall distribution underscores balanced paths through a 48-team format where knockout variance and fixture congestion can quickly alter trajectories for any contender.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEspagne 16.7%
France 16.1%
Portugal 10.5%
Angleterre 9.7%
$2,234,486,180 Vol.
$2,234,486,180 Vol.
20 juil. 2026
Espagne
17%
France
16%
Portugal
11%
Angleterre
10%
Brésil
8%
Argentine
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
5%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
États-Unis
2%
Japon
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
Turquie
1%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Canada
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Suède
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Australie
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Espagne 16.7%
France 16.1%
Portugal 10.5%
Angleterre 9.7%
$2,234,486,180 Vol.
$2,234,486,180 Vol.
20 juil. 2026
Espagne
$42,783,898 Vol.
17%
France
$49,555,775 Vol.
16%
Portugal
$45,253,207 Vol.
11%
Angleterre
$36,942,725 Vol.
10%
Brésil
$39,442,312 Vol.
8%
Argentine
$39,948,186 Vol.
8%
Allemagne
$41,533,968 Vol.
5%
Pays-Bas
$45,120,469 Vol.
5%
Norvège
$45,216,134 Vol.
3%
Belgique
$47,256,202 Vol.
2%
États-Unis
$67,572,561 Vol.
2%
Japon
$47,269,620 Vol.
2%
Maroc
$51,185,439 Vol.
2%
Colombie
$47,278,852 Vol.
2%
Turquie
$44,468,994 Vol.
1%
Mexique
$52,838,579 Vol.
1%
Suisse
$47,233,919 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$48,566,162 Vol.
1%
Croatie
$51,462,242 Vol.
1%
Équateur
$53,079,268 Vol.
1%
Sénégal
$42,764,804 Vol.
1%
Corée du Sud
$63,648,713 Vol.
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
$58,659,733 Vol.
<1%
Autriche
$50,089,614 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$50,444,457 Vol.
<1%
Écosse
$52,138,591 Vol.
<1%
Suède
$38,032,130 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$50,700,744 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$42,578,905 Vol.
<1%
Algérie
$51,636,987 Vol.
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
$37,365,682 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$56,210,032 Vol.
<1%
RD Congo
$61,605,998 Vol.
<1%
Australie
$50,843,099 Vol.
<1%
Égypte
$55,655,950 Vol.
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
$46,019,827 Vol.
<1%
Haïti
$32,606,628 Vol.
<1%
Jordanie
$32,119,541 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$42,782,712 Vol.
<1%
Tunisie
$35,976,442 Vol.
<1%
Ouzbékistan
$60,698,372 Vol.
<1%
Panama
$19,753,262 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$29,560,606 Vol.
<1%
Afrique du Sud
$38,837,932 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$40,678,685 Vol.
<1%
Tchéquie
$48,144,386 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$42,782,694 Vol.
<1%
Arabie saoudite
$49,542,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight bunching of implied probabilities around Spain and France at the top reflects comparable squad depth, youth talent pipelines, and strong recent tournament records among multiple European sides as the group stage opens. Portugal and England follow closely due to established attacking cores and defensive organization, while Brazil and defending champion Argentina sit just behind amid questions over key player availability and integration. Early results for hosts like the United States have produced modest shifts lower in the field, but the overall distribution underscores balanced paths through a 48-team format where knockout variance and fixture congestion can quickly alter trajectories for any contender.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,234,486,180Date de fin
20 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight bunching of implied probabilities around Spain and France at the top reflects comparable squad depth, youth talent pipelines, and strong recent tournament records among multiple European sides as the group stage opens. Portugal and England follow closely due to established attacking cores and defensive organization, while Brazil and defending champion Argentina sit just behind amid questions over key player availability and integration. Early results for hosts like the United States have produced modest shifts lower in the field, but the overall distribution underscores balanced paths through a 48-team format where knockout variance and fixture congestion can quickly alter trajectories for any contender.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,234,486,180Date de fin
20 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight bunching of implied probabilities around Spain and France at the top reflects comparable squad depth, youth talent pipelines, and strong recent tournament records among multiple European sides as the group stage opens. Portugal and England follow closely due to established attacking cores and defensive organization, while Brazil and defending champion Argentina sit just behind amid questions over key player availability and integration. Early results for hosts like the United States have produced modest shifts lower in the field, but the overall distribution underscores balanced paths through a 48-team format where knockout variance and fixture congestion can quickly alter trajectories for any contender.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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