Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 16.4% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, with England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil clustered just behind, reflecting the tight trader consensus. Spain’s position stems from its Euro 2024 title and consistent attacking depth featuring emerging talents, while France’s squad quality and recent final appearances sustain near parity. England’s strong qualification record and recent European final runs keep it competitive, as do Argentina’s defending-champion pedigree and Brazil’s historical pedigree. The expanded 48-team field, combined with multiple deep European squads holding recent form advantages and favorable FIFA rankings, prevents any single side from pulling away decisively before the opening matches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEspagne 16.4%
France 16.1%
Angleterre 10.8%
Portugal 10.5%
$1,937,668,944 Vol.
$1,937,668,944 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
16%
Angleterre
11%
Portugal
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
4%
Norvège
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Japon
2%
Maroc
2%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Turquie
1%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Canada
<1%
Suède
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Espagne 16.4%
France 16.1%
Angleterre 10.8%
Portugal 10.5%
$1,937,668,944 Vol.
$1,937,668,944 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
16%
Angleterre
11%
Portugal
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
4%
Norvège
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Japon
2%
Maroc
2%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Turquie
1%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Canada
<1%
Suède
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 16.4% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, with England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil clustered just behind, reflecting the tight trader consensus. Spain’s position stems from its Euro 2024 title and consistent attacking depth featuring emerging talents, while France’s squad quality and recent final appearances sustain near parity. England’s strong qualification record and recent European final runs keep it competitive, as do Argentina’s defending-champion pedigree and Brazil’s historical pedigree. The expanded 48-team field, combined with multiple deep European squads holding recent form advantages and favorable FIFA rankings, prevents any single side from pulling away decisively before the opening matches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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