**Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has remained in custody since his July 2025 arrest on charges tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration.** Multiple convictions and upheld sentences reinforce trader expectations that release before 2027 is unlikely. A February 2026 court handed him a life sentence for insurrection, which he is appealing. In June 2026, a Seoul court added a 30-year term for abuse of power and aiding the enemy linked to an alleged drone operation over North Korea. The Supreme Court in July 2026 finalized a separate seven-year sentence for obstruction of justice. Additional indictments, including an August 2026 abuse-of-power charge over communications to foreign partners, keep eight related trials active. These cumulative penalties, combined with the current liberal administration’s approach to the case and the absence of any recent executive action or procedural shift that would enable early release, underpin the market’s 92% implied probability on “No.” Appeals processes typically extend over months or years without altering immediate custody status, and historical patterns in South Korean high-profile political cases show limited early releases absent extraordinary circumstances. Upcoming hearings and potential further rulings within the 2026 resolution window offer few pathways to change the current detention trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourYoon hors de garde avant 2027 ?
Yoon hors de garde avant 2027 ?
Oui
8% chance
$200,931 Vol.
$200,931 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
8% chance
$200,931 Vol.
$200,931 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has remained in custody since his July 2025 arrest on charges tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration.** Multiple convictions and upheld sentences reinforce trader expectations that release before 2027 is unlikely. A February 2026 court handed him a life sentence for insurrection, which he is appealing. In June 2026, a Seoul court added a 30-year term for abuse of power and aiding the enemy linked to an alleged drone operation over North Korea. The Supreme Court in July 2026 finalized a separate seven-year sentence for obstruction of justice. Additional indictments, including an August 2026 abuse-of-power charge over communications to foreign partners, keep eight related trials active.
These cumulative penalties, combined with the current liberal administration’s approach to the case and the absence of any recent executive action or procedural shift that would enable early release, underpin the market’s 92% implied probability on “No.” Appeals processes typically extend over months or years without altering immediate custody status, and historical patterns in South Korean high-profile political cases show limited early releases absent extraordinary circumstances. Upcoming hearings and potential further rulings within the 2026 resolution window offer few pathways to change the current detention trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$200,931Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has remained in custody since his July 2025 arrest on charges tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration.** Multiple convictions and upheld sentences reinforce trader expectations that release before 2027 is unlikely. A February 2026 court handed him a life sentence for insurrection, which he is appealing. In June 2026, a Seoul court added a 30-year term for abuse of power and aiding the enemy linked to an alleged drone operation over North Korea. The Supreme Court in July 2026 finalized a separate seven-year sentence for obstruction of justice. Additional indictments, including an August 2026 abuse-of-power charge over communications to foreign partners, keep eight related trials active.
These cumulative penalties, combined with the current liberal administration’s approach to the case and the absence of any recent executive action or procedural shift that would enable early release, underpin the market’s 92% implied probability on “No.” Appeals processes typically extend over months or years without altering immediate custody status, and historical patterns in South Korean high-profile political cases show limited early releases absent extraordinary circumstances. Upcoming hearings and potential further rulings within the 2026 resolution window offer few pathways to change the current detention trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$200,931Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has remained in custody since his July 2025 arrest on charges tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration.** Multiple convictions and upheld sentences reinforce trader expectations that release before 2027 is unlikely. A February 2026 court handed him a life sentence for insurrection, which he is appealing. In June 2026, a Seoul court added a 30-year term for abuse of power and aiding the enemy linked to an alleged drone operation over North Korea. The Supreme Court in July 2026 finalized a separate seven-year sentence for obstruction of justice. Additional indictments, including an August 2026 abuse-of-power charge over communications to foreign partners, keep eight related trials active. These cumulative penalties, combined with the current liberal administration’s approach to the case and the absence of any recent executive action or procedural shift that would enable early release, underpin the market’s 92% implied probability on “No.” Appeals processes typically extend over months or years without altering immediate custody status, and historical patterns in South Korean high-profile political cases show limited early releases absent extraordinary circumstances. Upcoming hearings and potential further rulings within the 2026 resolution window offer few pathways to change the current detention trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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