Recent voter registration drives have expanded Zambia’s eligible electorate ahead of the August 13 presidential vote, supporting trader expectations for turnout in the 50-60% range that aligns with the country’s long-term average. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema’s UPND holds a polling lead, yet opposition concerns over legal processes and uneven application of campaign rules create uncertainty about mobilization levels. Youth participation, a decisive factor in 2021, remains a key variable, while broader economic pressures and polarized perceptions of electoral fairness could either boost or dampen participation. Scheduled campaign activities through early August and any further registration updates are the most immediate factors that could shift implied probabilities across the current brackets.